Solar's 2026 bottleneck isn't cells. It's wafers

U.S. solar manufacturing capacity currently under construction tells a lopsided story: 55.9 GW of cell capacity against just 13.3 GW of wafer capacity.

Non-Chinese wafer supply is thin and moving in different directions. Whoever closes that gap decides who builds cells profitably in the U.S.

Module spot prices sit near $0.46/W today, above the $0.38/W Section 232 floor taking effect December 4. A path back to about $0.30/W by 2027 depends on this gap, not on cell capacity.