We keep meeting manufacturers outside the U.S. who assume there are only two ways into this market: export as-is, or build a full plant from scratch. That's not true, and believing it costs people real opportunities.
Here's a number that should focus the mind: GE Vernova's gas turbine backlog went from 83 GW at the end of 2025 to 100 GW in Q1 2026 and 116 GW by Q2 2026, and the company is guiding to 125 GW by year-end, with reservations expected to be sold out through 2030. That's one OEM. The bottleneck isn't in exotic technology. It's in the mechanical backbone around it: skids, tooling, enclosures, ducting, housings. These are segments a well-run industrial manufacturer can realistically qualify into now.
Between “export as-is” and “build a plant” there is real, underused ground: local assembly to meet domestic-content rules, licensing, and joint ventures with an existing U.S. operator. Which path fits depends entirely on what a company can actually deliver today versus what it would need years to build.
That's the conversation we have most often right now: mapping a manufacturer's real capability against where U.S. demand actually has room, and sequencing the entry so it doesn't burn two years chasing the wrong segment first.
Sources
- GE Vernova quarterly results and investor disclosures (Q4 2025 – Q2 2026), via Utility Dive and Turbomachinery Magazine. Year-end 2026 figure is company guidance, not actual.